VITO'S VIEWS

There is an old saying that for coaches, NFL means “not for long.”

Last year was a good example when 10 teams changed head coaches.

But the turnover isn’t likely to match that total this year. With 10 new coaches and 12 of the 14 who made the playoffs last year returning, the odds that 22 will return in 2027 unless their teams collapse.

That leaves 10 coaches who returning who aren’t in their first year and didn’t make the playoffs last year.

Several appear safe in their jobs. Like Andy Reid, despite the Chiefs going 6-11 last year. And Kevin O’Donnell of the Vikings and Dan Campbell of the Lions, who both missed the playoffs last year with 9-8 records but should be back in 2027 unless their teams have a meltdown.

Brian Schottenheimer of the Cowboys figures to get a third year in 2027 despite the team’s 7-9 record in his first season last year. Dan Quinn of the Commanders also figures to get a fourth year despite a 5-12 mark last year because he made the playoffs in his first season. Kellen Moore went 6-11 in his first season with the Saints and may get a third year if the team improves. 

Here are the coaches who may be on the hot seat:

–Todd Bowles of the Bucs enters his fifth season  after missing the playoffs last year with an 8-9 record. He may need to make the playoffs to keep his job.

–Shane Steichen of the Colts enters his fourth season after going 9-8 his first year and 8-9 the last two years. Last year, they started off 8-2 but then Daniel Jones suffered a broken fibula and they lost their last seven games. Steichen’s future may depend on how well Jones recovers from the injury.

–Aaron Glenn went 3-14 in his first season as the Jets head coach and has to do better to get a third year.

–Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor enters his eighth season coming off a 6-11 season when Joe Burrow was hurt last year. Now Burrow is healthy, the Bengals made some big off season moves and Burrow is talking about going to the Super Bowl again. Taylor probably has to at least make the playoffs to get a ninth year in 2027.    

When Joe Burrow took the Bengals to the Super Bowl in his second season and came within a play of beating the Rams, the future looked bright.

Especially when they went 12-4 the following year in 2022 and went to the AFC title game before losing to the Chiefs.

But the last three years have been filled with frustration. They have missed the playoffs the last three years and Burrow has been injured in two of those years. He played in just 10 games in 2023 and eight last year.

Now the Bengals are at something of a crossroads. They made big moves in the offseason, signing Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook and trading their first round pick for Dexter Lawrence. With Burrow healthy and Cincinnati bringing back all their offensive starters for the first time in Burrow’s career, the Bengals think the sky is the limit.

Executive vice president Katie Blackburn told reporters, “We think we’re close.”

Burrow said, “We think we’re going to win a lot of games this year and play great and win the Super Bowl.”

Now the Bengals find out if they are as good as they think they they are. It is a Super Bowl or bust year for the Bengals.

Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the rest of the starting quarterbacks In the NFL should send Jerry Jones a thank-you note.

Jones waited to the final year of Dak Prescott’s previous extension before waiting to extend him again. So Prescott had all the leverage and signed a four-year, $240 million deal in new money with the Cowboys in 2024. That bumped his salary up to $60 million a year that doesn’t expire until 2028 and made him the highest-paid player.

At the time, the highest-paid quarterbacks were making $55 million a year.

So the Chiefs, who signed Mahomes to a 10-year, $450 million deal that was the best total value in sports when he signed it in 2020, decided that Mahomes needed a new extension.

If not for the Prescott extension, they might have aimed for a $60 million deal. But he had to make more than Prescott, who has never made a Super Bowl. So they signed Mahomes to an extension that will pay him $64 million a year and expires after the 2033 season.

So now Mahomes and Prescott are the two highest-paid quarterbacks at $64 million and $60 million.

The next five at $55 million are Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford, who signed a one-year deal and may be near retirement.

Of the other four, Allen’s deal expires after 2030 as does the Lawrence contract. Burrow’s deal runs until after 2029 season and Love’s through 2028. It remains to be seen if any of them top the $64 million mark Mahones has set in their next contracts.

Next on the list are Jared Goff and Mark Purdy at $53 million, Justin Herbert at $52.5 million, Lamar Jackson at $52 million and Jalen Hurts at $51.

Daniel Jones signed at $44 million last year and it expires after this season, but he was injured last year so he has to prove he is due for a raise in 2027.
 
And then there are young quarterbacks like C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, who both will play on their fifth year option, and Derek Maye, who enters his third season this year.

All this means, there are going to be a lot of interesting contract negotiations in the next few years. It won’t be surprising if a quarterback gets $70 million in the next few years.

The NFL’s  most exclusive club lost a member recently when Russell Wilson retired to the broadcast booth.

That means only five active starting quarterbacks have won Super Bowls — Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold ,Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.

Mahomes  is the  only one of the five to win more than one. He has made five appearances and is 3-2. Mahomes won three of the last seven and can become the sixth quarterback to win four or more in a decade.  The only five who  have done it are Sid Luckman, Otto Graham, Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. Luckman, Bradshaw and Montana won four while Starr won five and Graham seven. Graham went to ten title games in a row, the first four in the AAFC and the NFL now counts their stats. Tom Brady, of course, also won seven but took two decades to do it.

Hurts is the only one of the five who  won one and lost one.

Four quarterbacks — Drake Maye, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow and Jared Goff — have lost their only Super Bowl starts. None of the other starters, including Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, have made it to the Super Bowl.

Since this is likely Rodgers’ last year, the list will lose another one going into the 2027 season. We will find out if a new name is added to the list. 

For the Los Angeles Rams, the future is always now.

The Ram proved it again this week when they traded their 2027 first round pick, their 2028 second round pick and 2029 third round pick along with pass rusher Jared Verse, their 2024 first round pick, to the Browns for Myles Garrett.

Since 2016 the rams have eventually traded all their first round picks except for this year when they traded it to Chiefs to draft quarterback Ty Simpson. They traded four of them — two each — to get Matthew Stafford and Jalen Ramsey. 

The strategy has worked for the Rams since they have only missed the playoffs twice since 2017 and have gone to the conference title game three times and twice to the Super Bowl and won it once.

The trade made sense for both teams. With the Super Bowl being played in their home park in February and with Stafford being near the end of his career, they figured they would go all out for the Super Bowl this year. And the Browns figured they could use the three picks and Verse to build for the future.

The oddsmakers are already giving giving the Rams better odds of making the Super Bowl. According to oddsmaker Jimmy Shapiro, BetOnline.ag, the odds on the Rams winning the Super Bowl went from 15-2 to 6-1.

It is now Super Bowl or bust for the Rams this year.

The idea of having the two Super Bowl teams meet in the first game of the season sounds good on paper.

And the last time it happened was in 2016 when Denver edge Carolina 21-20 after beating the Panthers 24-10 in the previous Super Bowl.

This year, the league is having Seattle host New England in a Super Bowl rematch on Wednesday, Sept. 9, in the season opener, but don’t expect a good game this time. Even though the Seahawks won by only a 29-13 margin last February, the game wasn’t as close as the score.

The Patriots didn’t look that good in the playoffs and were no match for the Seahawks, who dominated the game. The Seahawks won’t have Kenneth Walker III, who ran for 135 yards and left for Kansas City in free agency, but they drafted Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price with the last pick in the first round and still have Sam Darnold running the offense. 

So the big question isn’t whether the Seahawks win but how good the ratings will be if the game is one sided.

The 60th Super Bowl lived down to its expectations.

It was expected to be a one sided game dominated by Seattle. And it was. The Patriots had the easiest schedule in the league and couldn’t handle the the Seattle defense, which blanked the Patriots the first three quarters and won 29-13 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score sounded.

Seattle had 19 pressures, 14 allowed by rookie left tackle Will Campbell and sacked Drake Maye six times. And they forced three turnovers, one a Pick Six that looked a sack strip at the beginning. Maye’s shoulder wasn’t 100 per cent and he got a shot before the game but it probably wouldn’t have made much difference if he was 100 per cent the way the Seahawks dominated the Patriots.

The only surprise was the way the Seahawks played their defense. As Bill Barnwell explained on ESPN, they only blitzed 20.7 percent of the time during the regular season because they can rush with their front four. But the Seahawks blitzed 33.3 percent of the time in the first half before dropping to eight per cent in the second half when they had the game under control. They also used a corner blitz by Devon Witherspoon seven times even he hadn’t blitzed the last four games. Although one was nullified by a penalty, one of them turned into a Pick Six when it bounced into the air into the arms of Uchemma Nwosu.

The tone was set on his first blitz when the Patriots got into the Seattle side of the field on third and nine and Maye was forced to throw it away. Maye never got into a rhythm and the Pats didn’t get back into Seattle territory until the final quarter.

The Patriot defense kept it close by limiting the Seahawks to four field goals in their first four scoring drives. But they couldn’t stop Kenneth Walker, who ran 27 times for 135 yards and added 26 yards on two receptions to win MVP honors. Quarterback Sam Darnold didn’t torch the Patriot defense as he completed 19 of 38 for 202 yards and a touchdown. The key was he didn’t commit any turnovers and ended the talk that he couldn’t handle big games.

The NFC has now won the last two Super Bowls and this could be the beginning of an era dominated by the NFC. It is not likely any other AFC team would have beaten the Seahawks but the Bills with Josh Allen might have kept it closer. Just  winning their division next year will be the major challenge because the Rams and 49ers will put up a stiff fight while the Bears, Eagles and Packers can’t be counted out.

Meanwhile, Super Bowl losers don’t tend to win the following year. It has only happened once since the 1972 perfect season and that was by the Patriots when they had Tom Brady. With a much tougher schedule in 2026, the Patriots still have more rebuilding to do.  But coach Mike Vrabel said he is sticking with Campbell at left tackle, so he hasn’t given up on him.

One thing the Patriots have in common with the Seahawks is that winning their division again won’t be easy because Josh Allen will be healthy again after playing the last few games with a broken bone in his foot. 

The 60th Super Bowl doesn’t look like a good matchup on paper and nobody will be surprised if it is a one-sided game. 

The Seattle Seahawks are favored to beat the New England Patriots by 4.5 points mainly because they played a much tougher schedule than the Patriots, who have the fourth easiest schedule of any team to play in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks lead the league with 17.2 points allowed and also lead the league and third down defense and yards allowed per rush. And they had the fourth toughest schedule this year while New England had the easiest. And they have the more experienced quarterback in Sam Darnold, who bounced around the league before finding his home in Seattle. New England, by contrast, has a second-year quarterback in Drake Maye, who has played well for a second year quarterback but may or may not have a shoulder problem. Darnold has an oblique injury but it hasn’t seem to bother him.

There is also the dynamic of whether New England will overachieve the way they have done most of the year and pull off an upset. Or could the Seahawks be overconfident.

Those are the big questions going into the game, but it will be a surprise if the Patriots pull off an upset. All signs are that the Seahawks are a much better team and should win.