Previewing NFL Week 13

The NFL will have its usual Thanksgiving holiday feast of national games with three on Thanksgiving, one afternoon game on Black Friday a double header game Sunday and the usual Sunday and Monday night games.  It can’t schedule Saturday games yet because the college season is still ongoing and can’t play Friday night because of high school football.

The first two games on Thanksgiving Day are the best matchups of the weekend, although the traditional Lions game will start at 1 p.m. instead of noon the way it used to be, and the Cowboys will host the Chiefs in the second game.

The Lions will host the Packers in a game that has a long of tradition for fans who remember the 1960s. The two teams used to play on Thanksgiving every year until Vince Lombardi pulled the Packers out of the game in 1964 after the Lions routed them on Thanksgiving Day in 1962 by a 26-14 margin but it wasn’t as close as the score (the Lions led 26-0 after three quarters before the Packers scored twice after the game was decided).

It was the only game the Packers lost that year. The Lions came within an interception of sweeping them that year. In the first game, the focus of the book “Run To Daylight,” the Lions led 7-6 late when Terry Barr slipped on the muddy field and Herb Adderley intercepted a third down pass by Milt Plum to set up the Packers a game winning field goal to win 9-7.

The defensive players were furious the Lions just didn’t run the ball and because they figured they would stop the Packers one more time. If you count the first three quarters of the Thanksgiving Day game, the Lions held the Packers to three field goals in seven quarters that year. The Lions sacked Bart Starr 11 times.

Once the Packers pulled out, the league started rotating the opponents and a decade or so ago there was talk of pulling the game out of Detroit since they had been losing for years. But the Ford family has too much clout and the Lions have the tradition of hosting the game since the 1930s, so the league kept the game in Detroit.

And this year there is a lot at stake with both teams chasing the 8-3 Bears in the NFC North. The Packers have the sixth seed at 7-3-1 while the Lions have the eighth seed at 7-4. Basically, the NFC has nine teams vying for seven spots since no other NFC team besides the Lions and 5-5-1 Cowboys has fewer than six losses. And only one other, the 6-6 Panthers has fewer than seven losses.

–The Chiefs and the Cowboys also have a lot at stake. The Chiefs are trying to keep their bid for a fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance alive and they can’t afford at loss since they are 6-5 while the Cowboys are just trying to stay in the playoff picture at 5-5-1.

–In the other national games, Baltimore hosts Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night, while Philadelphia hosts Chicago at 3 p.m. on “Black Friday,” but the game is on Amazon while CBS has the Sunday doubleheader game with Buffalo at Pittsburgh. Their other late game is the Raiders at the Chargers. The Monday night game is Denver at Washington and the Monday night game is the Giants at New England. Of those other four national games only two Chicago at Philadelphia and Buffalo at Pittsburgh feature games with both teams having playoff shots.

–Of the 1 pm Sunday games, only one, Houston at Indianapolis feature both teams in the playoff hunt. Indianapolis is attempting to bounce back from the loss to the Chiefs and if they lose and the Jaguars beat the Titans, they would be tied with the Jaguars at 8-4 in the AFC South when they meet next week. Houston is 6-5 and  still trying to get a wild card spot or even get in the division race.Besides the seven seeded teams currently, only three others, the Texans, Steelers and Chiefs at 6-5 have fewer than seven losses so there are 10 teams vying for seven spots. Twelve of the 32 teams have seven or more losses.

NFL Week 12 in review

The Eagles and the Rams had two things in common  Sunday. Both were 8-2 and jumped to 21-0 leads. But while the Eagles failed to score again and lost to the Cowboys 24-21 to drop to the second seed at 8-3 in the NFC , the Rams routed Tampa Bay 34-7 to boost their record to 9-2 and take the top seed with six games left. The way the Eagles are struggling, the Rams now seem favored to go to the Super Bowl. But the Eagles did beat the Rams early in the season, so they would get the tiebreak if they can tie the Rams.

The Rams, though, still face a challenge to win their division. Seattle is second in the division at 8-3  and barely lost to the Rams, 21-19, and still have a game left with the Rams. San Francisco is 8-4 after beating Carolina 20-9 on Monday night and split with the Rams, so the division race is wide open. San Francisco is trying to make the playoffs even though its two star defensive players, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, are out for the year with injuries. Seattle and San Francisco are the fifth and seventh seeds and all three could make the playoffs. Seattle beat Tennessee, 30-24, last week.

–The other two NFC division leaders are the 8-3  Bears, who beat the Steelers 31-28, and the 6-4 Bucs, who lost to the Rams and suffered another setback when quarterback Baker Mayfield suffered an injury to his non throwing shoulder and watched the second half in a sling. The three current wild-card teams are Seattle, Green Bay and San Francisco. The Lions are currently the eighth seed at 7-4. The Lions had to go to overtime to beat the Giants, 34-27, last week. Green Bay beat Minnesota 23-6 last week and is 7-3-1.

–The Patriots rallied to beat the Jets to boost their record to 10-2, the best in the NFL and the current top seed in the AFC. The Broncos had a bye and dropped to the second seed at 9-2, while the Colts lost to the Chiefs 23-20 in overtime and dropped from first to third seed at 8-3. The Colts had a 20-9 lead over the Chiefs in the fourth and still lost, raising questions about whether the Colts are as good as their record. The Chiefs win kept them alive at 6-5 so they can’t beat counted out. The other division leader in the AFC is Baltimore, which beat the Jets to boost its record to  6-5. The three wild-card teams are the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills. The Steelers fell to eighth seed at 6-5 with a 31-28 loss to the Bears but still have two games left with the Ravens that will likely decide the division winner. The Chargers are the fifth seed at 7-5 after having a bye while the Jaguars are the sixth seed after overcoming four Trevor Lawrence turnovers to beat the Cardinals in overtime, 27-24. Coach Liam Coen said he is not going to apologize for victories that boosted their record to 7-4. Buffalo is the seventh seed at 7-4 seed after losing to Houston, 23-19. The Texans, Steelers and Chiefs are all tied at 6-5 and fighting to get a late season surge and make the playoffs.

–Shedeur Sanders made his NFL debut a success by leading the Browns to a 24-10 win over the Raiders. Sanders now has as many wins as top pick Cam Ward, even though Sanders dropped to the fifth round in the draft and is now trying to prove the scouts make a mistake not taking hm earlier. 

Despite NFL’s financial success, new book argues the league might be at a crossroads

Commissioner Pete Rozelle,  the man who modernized the NFL beginning in the early 1960s, used to tell his staff, “Remember, we kick off every Sunday at 1 p.m.”

That was back in the days when the National Football League thought of itself as an actual football league, although Rozelle did start Monday and Sunday night football and even experimented with Thursday night football but stopped it when he didn’t think it was good for the league.

As Ken Belson, who has covered the business of the NFL for The New York Times, explains in his book, “Every Day is Sunday,” the NFL is now more of a business than a football league. It is now like a multi-billion dollar entertainment conglomerate and is going global with games played around the world.

The book profiles the three men who played key roles in making it a big business – Jerry Jones (owner of the Cowboys), Robert Kraft (owner of the Patriots), and commissioner Roger Goodell.

The three have very different personalities but the common goal of making making a lot of money. Jones is a master of marketing and often tangled with the other owners even to the extent of threatening to sue them over a Goodell contract extension. Kraft is close to Goodell and is often called the shadow commissioner. And Goodell is a master at cutting expenses and increasing revenue. He locked the players out in 2011 to give the owners a bigger share of the revenue. Kraft also played a big role in reaching an agreement to end the 2011 lockout and even attending meetings when he was mourning the loss of his first wife. And in the latest money making idea, owners can sell equity in their teams to get more cash.

Another change is the concept of spending money to promote the league is no longer a priority. For example, Rozelle used to host a party on Friday night before the Super Bowl for at least 3,000 guests, including sponsors, executives and the media. The tickets for the party were free and almost as coveted as Super Bowl tickets. Goodell decided it was too expensive. Ditto for a party after the game Sunday night. Rozelle also used to think the the TV networks were partners and should make make a profit on televising the games. Now the idea is the networks can use the games for promotional purposes and the league does not care if they make money televising them.   

Belson also chronicles how Rupert Murdoch, the founder  of the FOX network, helped make the NFL what it is today. His  four-year, $1.58 billion bid for the NFC package in 1994 that CBS failed to match showed the show the growth potential for the league. The $395 million a year bid far surpassed the $250 million CBS was willing to pay. A new day had dawned in the NFL, and it has kept growing ever since.

Now the question is where does the league go from here. Belson points out that Jones and Kraft are in their 80s, and Goodell is 66. They don’t show any interest in retiring but eventually a new generation will take over. And times are changing. As more billionaire owners buy their teams, they want more revenue. There may be more labor strife in the future as owners try to get a bigger piece of the pie. And with NBC paying $27 billion for an 11-year deal, they will want more programming for their various platforms.

And there are other issues coming up. The NFL makes more money not because it is drawing more viewers but because — in the era of social media — the other network shows don’t draw the audiences they once did. So the NFL staying the same makes it more valuable. The TV ratings haven’t increased since 2015 (when they averaged 18.1 million viewers), although they could increase somewhat this year because of the new way Nielsen does the ratings. And then the NFL has the problem of having enough good matchups to fill all their stand-alone slots with games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, plus a doubleheader game on Sunday.  And the global games that start at 9:30 a.m. in the East and 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast (Goodell  is talking about increasing them). And then there is the debate about going to an 18-game schedule, which is likely coming sooner than later. And then the TV industry itself is rapidly changing. Will the networks continue to pay higher numbers? If the NFL goes more to streaming, will fans continue to pay more for each streaming services?

The NFL is now on top, but where do they go from here? Is there a fear of overexposure and slower growth, or will the league continue to bring in much more revenue and remain a money-making machine?

In just five years, Belson may have enough material for another book.

Previewing NFL Week 12

When the NFL scheduled Indianapolis at Kansas City in the 12thweek of the season, they didn’t expect it to be a premier attraction. They scheduled it at 1 p.m. Sunday as one of four CBS early games, so it won’t be a national attraction but will be shown in most markets.

A lot will be at stake, especially for Kansas City. The Chiefs are 5-5 and if they lose to the Colts, they could be in danger of missing the playoffs. Meanwhile, the 8-2 Colts are currently seeded third in the AFC  and are fighting for the top seed and want to keep two games ahead of the 6-4 Jaguars, who are playing Arizona. The Chiefs are still favored even though the Colts have the better record.

The Chiefs’ main problem is that they are 0-5 in one score games this year after bringing a 17-game winning streak in one-score games into the season. The Chiefs are having a problem on offense. Either Patrick Mahomes misses receivers or the receivers don’t get open or drop his passes. If the Chiefs are to make a late run to the playoffs, it has to start now.

–There is also a premier match Sunday night  with a battle of division leaders as Tampa Bay goes to the Rams. The Rams are 8-2 and the Bucs are 6-4. The Rams are a game ahead of Seattle, which is expected to beat Tennessee, in the NFC West. The Bucs are a game ahead in the loss column over the surprising 6-5 Panthers.

–In the other two primetime games, Buffalo, the fifth seed in the AFC at 7-3,  is favored over 5-5 Houston Thursday night and 7-4 San Francisco, the seventh NFC seed, will play the surprising Panthers Monday night. 

 –The 6-4 Steelers, the fourth AFC seed and the AFC North leader, will play at the 7-3 Bears, the third NFC seed and NFC North leader. With Aaron Rodgers recovering from a broken bone in his wrist, Mason Rudolph will anthe start if Rodgers can’t go. New England at 9-2 and second AFC seed, will at Cincinnati. Both are CBS early games. Jacksonville, the seventh AFC seed at 6-4, plays at  Arizona in a late CBS game.

–The Eagles, the top NFC seed at 8-2, will go to 4-5-1 Dallas, in the national doubleheader game on FOX. It will be shown in all markets except the New Orleans and Atlanta areas since those two teams play each other.

NFL Week 11 in review

It was not a good Sunday for the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions, who are both on the outside of the playoff picture with seven games left. The Chiefs are 5-5 in a three way tie with the Texans and Ravens   who are all a game behind the seventh seed 6-4 Jaguars in the AFC race. The 6-4 Lions, meanwhile, are eighth in the NFC, a half game behind the 7-4 49ers.

The Chiefs’ string of nine consecutive AFC West titles is likely to end this year after the Chiefs lost to Denver, the top AFC  seed at 9-2. The Chiefs now will have to fight for a wild card spot and go on the road if they make the playoffs and try to return to the Super Bowl. Mahomes pointed the finger at himself, noting he made too many bad throws.

Meanwhile, both Lions QB Jared Goff and coach Dan Campbell had a frustrating game  in the loss to the Eagles. Goff had five passes batted down and Campbell went for it on fourth down five times and the Lions didn’t make any of the five. Campbell often gets burned when he gambles on fourth down. But the Lions were also the victim of a bad defensive pass interference call that cost the Lions a chance for a game winning drive.

–The defending champion Eagles are in a good position for a repeat after the victory over the Lions gave them a 8-2 record and the top seed in the NFC after beating the Lions. The Broncos have the top seed in the AFC  at 9-2 after beating the Chiefs.

–The other three division leaders in the NFC are the 8-2 Rams, who beat the Seahawks, the 7-3 Bears, who beat the Vikings and the 6-4 Bucs, who lost to the Bills. The other three division leaders in the AFC are 9-2 Patriots, who beat the Jets last Thursday night, the 8-2 Colts, who had a bye, and the 6-4 Steelers, who beat the Bengals. Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was replaced by Mason Rudolph after Rodgers broke a bone in his left wrist and it is uncertain how long he will be sidelined.

–The three wild card teams in the NFC are the 7-3 Seahawks, who lost to the Rams,  the 6-3-1 Packers, who beat the Giants, and the 7-4 49ers, who beat the Cardinals. The wild card AFC teams are the 7-3 Bills, who beat the Bucs, the 7-4 Chargers and the 6-4 Jaguars, who beat the Chargers.