VITO'S VIEWS

Can the best quarterback beat the best team?

That is the question hovering over Sunday’s Super Bowl.

Philadelphia has the better team with an edge on both the offensive and defensive lines. It is often said games are won or lost in the trenches and that is where the Eagles have the edge.

But they are only favored by a point or two because the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, who is appearing in his third Super Bowl in the last four years although he is still recovering from an high ankle sprain.

The Eagles also have a good quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who is in his third season and first Super Bowl but he is not yet in Mahomes class.

One thing they have in common is that they are both black quarterbacks and it is the first time both starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl are black. That says more about how long it took for the NFL to play black quarterbacks than it does about them.

Another popular storyline is that Andy Reid will be coaching against the team that fired him after the 2012 season. He made one Super Bowl in Philadelphia and lost it. He is 1-1 in Super Bowls with the Chiefs.

The two sides seem evenly matched. Both are 16-3. Both scored 546 points. Both have six all pro players and both were top seeds.

But that doesn’t mean it will be a close game. Only four games have had spreads of three points or less since 2002 when the league went to 32 teams and three were decided by 10 points of more.

The Eagles won the Super Bowl after the 2017 season and the Chiefs won after the 2019 season so the winner will get its second victory in either the last five or three years.

So next year the Eagles will be going for their third win in last six years or the Chiefs will be going for their third in the win in the last four years.

The league is looking for the next dominant team to replace the Patriots. The winner of this game will have a shot at that legacy.

If you want to fix a problem, the first thing you have to do is admit you have a problem.

But it is not the style of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to admit the league has any problems, at least when it comes to officiating.

He made the stunning comment Wednesday at the commissioner’s annual Super Bowl press conference that the officiating has never been better. Although he added it will never be perfect.

He is right about the second part because it is a difficult game to officiate.

But the officials still make too many mistakes, like in the Kansas City-Cincinnati game when the Chiefs’ game-winning drive was kept alive when the officials failed to call a block in back on a punt return and missed an obvious holding call on Patrick Mahomes late scramble. And then there was the do over.

Goodell pointed out there are 42,000 calls, but many of them are routine. They miss too many at critical times.

Aaron Rodgers has even speculated one of the problems is that the league loses too many good officials to TV and that they should pay them more. The NFL isn’t likely to go for that idea even though it is likely a good one.

The one thing we do now is that the end of the Chiefs-Bengals game and Gooell”s comments put even more pressure on the refs not to make any big mistakes in the Super Bowl.

Carl Cheffers will be th referee for the second time in three years, and his crew called the most penalties in the league for the second consecutive year although only one member of his regular season crew will be on the field for the Super Bowl.

Mike Pereira, the former director of officials who joined Fox in 2010 and will be in the booth, admits there will be pressure on the officials, but said they like the challenge.

We do know one thing. No matter what the officiating is like, Goodell will say it has never been better.

One of the storylines of the Super Bowl is that this will be the first in which both quarterbacks are black.

It is another milestone for the league as it attempts to overcome its history of racial stereotyping of players because of race. Now that Tom Brady has retired, the question is which one of the young quarterbacks will be best of the next generation.

Mahomes is currently in the lead with his third Super Bowl appearance in his sixth season. He is 1-1 in the first two. Jalen Hurts is making his first appearance in his third year. Joe Burrow has one appearance and lost it. Josh Allen has yet to get there.

The winner of this game will have a leg up on next year because the Super Bowl loser has won it the year after losing it the previous year only since the 1972 perfect Dolphins did it. Brady did it once but didnt win it year after his other two losses. 

And while Brady’s record of seven Super Bowl rings is not likely to be matched any time soon, they might have a shot at four to match what Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana did. And Bart Starr won five title, three before the Super Bowl era started.

It is also forgotten that while Brady won three in his first five years in 2001, 03 and 04, he didn’t win the fourth one until after the 2014 season when Russell Wilson threw the pass from the one.

So he had a nine-year gap between his third and fourth wins while losing the Super Bowl after the 2007 and 2011 seasons to the Giants. He also was injured in the 2008 season opener and missed the rest of that year.

So if Mahomes wins his second this year, he would need only two in the next eight years to match Brady’s four in his first 14 years.

Brady then lost to Denver in playoffs in 2015 and appeared in the next three Super Bowls, beating Atlanta in the 28-3 game, losing to Philadelphia and then beating the Rams in 2016, 2017 and 2018. He lost to Tennessee in 2019 and then beat the Rams in Tampa in 2020 for his seventh and final one. 

Brady also had some close calls along the way. Take away the tuck rule, Seattle’s pass from the one yard line and Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s decision not to run three plays and kick a field goal for an 11point lead with four minutes left, Brady could be 4-5 in Super Bowls instead of 7-3. He woud still be a first ballot HOFer but would he be considered the GOAT? We will never know.

Now we get to watch Mahomes and Hurts try to make their mark on history.

Teams like to say a deal is a win-win for both teams.

But will there be a winner in the Sean Payton trade to the Broncos except for, of course, the Saints?

The Saints got first- and second-round picks and gave up a third and Payton, so it worked for them. They got good compensation for a coach who quit on them last year.

But did the Broncos give up too much for a coach who went to just one Super Bowl in New Orleans with Drew Brees as his quarterback for 15 years.

And while Payton is making big money – a reported $85 million for five years – he may not be in a good situation

While he joins a team that has a good defense, he has to try to fix Russell Wilson and he is in a division where he will play against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a year. It is hard to imagine Broncos winning a division title in the next few years. And the picks the Broncos gave up for Wilson will make it harder for Payton to turn it around.

In New Orleans, he was competing against the Panthers, Falcons and Bucs.

Payton apparently got what he wanted. But sometimes you have to watch what you wish for because you just might get it.

But at least he will be cashing big checks and can always go back to his TV gig.

The conference title games proved once again that a game can be decided by one play.

But if that is the case, it depends on when that play happened whether it is an exciting game.

When rookie Brock Purdy was knocked out in the first quarter, the 49ers chances of beating the Eagles were virtually doomed.

They still trailed only 14-7 late in the second quarter with Josh Johnson fumbled a shotgun snap and the Eagles recovered and went ahead 21-7 at halftime. And then Johnson suffered a concussion in the second half and departed and Purdy had to come back but could only hand off. And the Eagles were on their way to the Super Bowl.

It was the second year in the row the 49ers lost in the conference title game. They lost to the Rams last year after holding a 17-7 lead in fourth quarter.

And coach Kyle Shanahan has lost Super Bowls as a coordinator and a head coach. He was the Falcons offensive coordinator in the 28-3 game against the Patriots and couldn’t hold a 20-20 lead in fourth quarter against the Chiefs.

So the goal for Shanahan to win one remains elusive. The pressure will build on him to get a ring. 

Meanwhile, the defining play of the Chiefs game was Patrick Mahomes getting pushed out of bounds with eight seconds left for a 15-yard penalty that set up the game winning field goal and meant there would be no overtime. It was an exciting ended Cincinnati’s three-game win streak over the Chiefs as Mahomes managed to win despite dealing with a high ankle sprain.

The Bengals also weren’t happy with two none calls on the final drive as the Chiefs apparently got away with an apparent push in the back on a punt return that set up good field position and a holding penalty on Mahomes’ scramble. If either play had been called, they would have had an overtime.

Now Mahomes will make his third trip to the Super Bowl in his first five years as a starter. It remains to be seen how much he will heal in the next two weeks as he deals with the high ankle sprain. The Eagles fierce pass rush figures to put a lot of pressure on Mahomes in the Super Bowl.

If Mahomes is close to full speed, it could be a great game. Otherwise, the Eagle pass rush could neutralize him the way Tampa Bay did when they beat him when he was playing behind a makeshift line.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati is the latest team to lose the Super Bowl and fail to win it the next year. It has happened only once since the Dolphins perfect season of 1972 after they lost the previous year.

The Pittsburgh Steelers played the Oakland Raiders five years in a row in the playoffs in one of the best rivalries in NFL history.

No two teams have done that since.

In the last three years, the teams played in AFC title game and the winner won the Super. The first game was the Immaculate Reception game in 1972 but the Steelers lost to the Dolphins the next week. In 1973, the Raiders beat the Steelers, but also lost to the Dolphins. The Steelers wound up winning three of the five games.

This history is relevant because the Bengals and Chiefs play Sunday in the AFC title game for the second year in a row.

They appear to be the two best teams in the AFC and nobody will be surprised if they meet again next year. They are likely to be the top two seeds again next year although Buffalo might rebound after its one-sided loss to the Bengals last week.

It would be unusual in the salary cap era for two teams to remain on top.

But both have young quarterbacks and Joe Burrow is on his rookie deal and Patrick Mahomes has signed a long term deal so it will be interesting to see how  long they can keep it going.

And since both seem likely to continue to dominate their divisions they will keep meeting in the regular season every year.

That will be the game of the regular season each year.

Get the popcorn ready. It could turn out to be one of the best rivalries in NFL history.

Three of the four teams in the conference title games last year are returning this year.

The Kansas City-Cincinnati game is a rematch of Cincinnati’s 27-24 victory over the Chiefs last year. San Francisco lost t the Rams 20-17, but Rams didn’t make the playoffs this year and the Eagles have the top seed.

These two games will be critical for the reputations of the two coaches and quarterbacks who advance to the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes has made it to the AFC title game five consecutive years. And made it to the Super Bowl twice, winning one and losing one. He didn’t play his rookie year so he has made it every year as a starter. He has already lost three times to Joe Burrow in the last 13 months so he would probably be the underdog even if he didn’t have a high ankle sprain.

Andy Reid has a 20-16 record in the playoffs with three Super Bowl appearances and one win.

Burrow is in his third season and made the Super Bowl in his second year last season but lost to the Rams.

Zac Taylor is in his fourth season as the Bengals coach and is 5-1 in playoffs with one Super Bowl loss.

Jalen Hurts is in his third season and his second as a starter and is in his first conference title game with a shot at his first Super Bowl.

Nick Sirianni is in just his second year as the Eagles and is aiming for his first Super Bowl appearance.

Mike Shanahan is in his sixth year as 49ers coach with a 6-2 playoff record and this is his third appearance in a conference title game in the last four years. He has one Super bowl appearance and lost. He also was the offensive coordinator in Atlanta in the 28-3 Super Bowl game against the Patriots.

Brock Purdy is only the fifth rookie to start a conference title game. The other four lost so he is trying to become the first rookie to make it to the Super Bowl as a starter.

The NFL is overdue for some good matchups and exciting finishes in the playoffs.

It didn’t get them in the divisional round, which is often called the best weekend of the season. but was disappointing this year.

The two lowest seeds who were big underdogs, Giants and Jaguars, lost as expected. The Giants were routed by the Eagles and while the Jaguars kept it close because Patrick Mahomes played the second half on one leg, they were guilty of two late turnovers and allowed backup Chad Henne to put together a 98-yard drive in the first half. They also didn’t put much pressure on Mahomes  when he was hobbling in the second half. 

The two Sunday games were expected to be classics but the Bengals dominated the Bills and the Cowboys made too many mistakes against the 49ers. Two picks by Dak Prescott were devastating. The Cowboys have now gone 27 years in a row without making the conference title game with Jerry Jones as the owner. Jones should hire a GM, but he likes running the show. 

The Bills were the underdogs because the Bengals were missing three offensive linemen but the backups blocked well and Joe Burrow got the ball out quickly as he picked apart the Bills defense. The Bills have lost in the playoffs now four years in a row and they may need to give Josh Allen a better supporting cast..

Burrow now takes on Patrick Mahomes, who will likely be limping because of his high ankle sprain. Burrow has already beaten Mahomes three times in the last 13 months so he could be on his way to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row. The 49ers are in the conference title game the third time in the last four years. They are 1-1 in the previous two games.

The Eagles, the only top seed left, will host the 49ers in a duel between Jalen Hurts and rookie Brock Purdy.

The NFL hopes these two matchups will be .the best of the playoffs. So far, the playoffs have not been memorable.

In 2004, the San Diego Chargers selected Eli Manning with the first pick in the draft, but he never played a down for them.

Eli was adamant he wouldn’t play for the Chargers so they traded him to the Giants, who gave them Philip Rivers, the player they drafted with the fourth pick.

Not much has changed for the Chargers except they moved to Los Angeles to share a stadium with the Rams since then. They haven’t appeared in a Super Bowl since 1994. It was their only appearance and they were routed by the 49ers.

Eli went on to win two Super Bowls for the Giants, while Rivers put up a lot of good numbers but never made it to the Super Bowl.

This is some history that Justin Herbert needs to study and understand that if he spends his career with the Chargers, he will probably be like Rivers. Put up good numbers but never make it to the Super Bowl. There is even a word for the Charger mishaps – “Chargering.” The Spanos family has a history of falling short.

After the 27-0 meltdown against the Jaguars and the decision to keep Coach Brandon Staley, it is obvious the Chargers are still spinning their wheels. They only fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, the grandson of Vince, and quarterback coach Shane Gray. They should have cleaned house and gotten rid of Staley and GM Tom Telesco.

It should have been obvious after two years that Staley isn’t a good fit for the Chargers. To start with, he’s a defensive coach and they should have an offensive guru with an asset like Herbert.

And Staley’s management of the game is suspect. He tends to go for it too often on fourth down and last year his timeout with 38 seconds left in overtime of a tie game against the Raiders in the season finale when a tie would have put both teams in the playoffs helped hand the Raiders a win and knock them out of the playoffs.

This year, he played his starters in a meaningless season finale and lost Mike Williams for the Jaguars game when he broke a bone in his back.

 And Daniel Popper in The Athletic detailed all the mistakes they made on both sides of the ball once they got the 27-0 lead.

With less than three minutes left they had a 3^rd and 1 at their 27 and Lombardi sent in two plays – an interior run or a jet sweet if the Jaguars were stacked against the run. They were so Herbert called the jet sweep. Lombardi sent it in even though they had a negative 21 yards using it four times in the past. They also had a backup at the position who missed the switch in plays and wasn’t looking for the ball. The exchange was fumbled and the Chargers had to punt and the Jaguars scored to make it 27-7.

In the second half, the Jaguars used a dozen no huddle plays compared to three in first half and the Chargers didn’t adjust. The plays averaged 10.5 yards a play and three completions of 20 yards or more including a 39 yard touchdown pass against a busted coverage.

Then there was the undisciplined play as Joey Bosa was called for two unsportsmanlike penalties. He threw his helmet after the second one when officials missed a false start by Jawaan Taylor as Trevor Lawrence threw a touchdown pass. Bosa’s second penalty gave Jaguars a chance to go for two and Lawrence jumped over the top for the conversion and the Jaguars won with a field goal on final play.

In the end, the Chargers lost despite having a 5-0 edge in turnovers. Teams with that margin were 142-4-1 since 2000 and yet the Chargers lost.

Staley seems to be almost oblivious to the way it looked at his Wednesday press conference.

“I have a lot of confidence in the way we’ve done things for two years,” he said.

Huh? Is he serious?

Meanwhile, Herbert has to think about whether he should stay with Chargers. Unless they give him a Deshaun Watson contract — $230 million for five years – he should make a Kirk Cousins move and get franchised a couple of times and then leave as a free agent and sign with a team that has a Super Bowl shot..

As long as the Spanos family owns the team, Herbert is likely to be the next Rivers in a town in which the team plays second fiddle to the Rams.

The dynamic of the divisional games on Saturday and Sunday will be very different.

On Saturday, the two bye teams, Kansas City and Philadelphia, host Jacksonville and the Giants will be heavily favored to advance to the conference title games.

The question is whether the Chiefs and Eagles will be overconfident or whether the Jaguars and Giants will already consider their season a success.

Jaguars coach Doug Pederson was asked if his team is playing with house money and he said, among other things, that since the Jaguars are in the final four, “Whether we win or lose, our season was a success from that standpoint.”

That is true. Even if the Jaguars lose their season is a success. But Kansas City has already been in the last four AFC title games and two Super Bowls the last four years. Their mindset is Super Bowl or bust.

On the other hand, since week 11, Trevor Lawrence and Mahomes have had virtually identical stats.  Both are 7-1, Lawrence has completed 66 per cent of his passes and has 16 touchdown passes and six picks. He was 4 and 4 in both categories last week as the Jaguars overcame a 27-0 deficit against the Chargers. Mahomes has completed 67 per cent of his passes and is 16-5 in TD passes and picks. 

It will not be a surprise if both the Jaguars and Giants cover the spread. The question is whether either can pull off a big upset.

On Sunday, it is a different story with both the Bills and 49ers favored by less than a touchdown against the Bengals and Cowboys.

The Bills and Bengals, of course, had their last game called because of the Damar Hamlin injury. The Bengals, meanwhile, scored a touchdown on their first drive in the Hamlin game but now have issues on their offensive line.

The Cowboys haven’t been in conference title game since winning their last Super Bowl in 1995. Meanwhile, the 49ers are trying to make it with rookie Brock Purdy, who is 7-0 but has faced only one top ten defense.

Nobody will be surprised if both games Sunday are close.